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Add South Carolina dataset exploration#120

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DTrim99 wants to merge 4 commits intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
DTrim99:sc-data-exploration
Open

Add South Carolina dataset exploration#120
DTrim99 wants to merge 4 commits intoPolicyEngine:mainfrom
DTrim99:sc-data-exploration

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@DTrim99 DTrim99 commented Feb 26, 2026

Summary

  • Adds data exploration notebook for South Carolina (SC) state dataset
  • Includes comprehensive summary CSV with weighted population estimates
  • Analyzes AGI distribution at both household and person levels (median, average, percentiles)
  • Breaks down households by number of children and children by age groups
  • NEW: Adds SC H.4216 tax reform analysis with RFA comparison

Key SC Statistics

Metric Value
Household count (weighted) 1,887,388
Person count (weighted) 5,451,832
Average household size 2.9
Weighted median household AGI $43,222
Weighted average household AGI $103,858
Weighted median person AGI $38,962
Weighted average person AGI $93,926

H.4216 Tax Reform Analysis

Compares PolicyEngine microsimulation results against official RFA (Revenue & Fiscal Affairs) analysis.

Metric RFA PolicyEngine
General Fund Impact -$119.1M +$39.8M
Tax Decrease % 38.7% 20.0%
Tax Increase % 26.7% 24.0%
No Change % 34.6% 56.0%

Key Differences

The $159M discrepancy is primarily due to:

  1. Upper-middle income ($100k-$500k): PE shows larger tax increases due to SCIAD phase-out
  2. Middle income ($30k-$100k): PE shows smaller tax cuts
  3. Data source: RFA uses actual SC tax returns; PE uses CPS-based synthetic data

See h4216_analysis_comparison.md for detailed analysis.

Files Added

  • us/states/sc/data_exploration.ipynb - SC dataset exploration
  • us/states/sc/sc_dataset_summary_weighted.csv - Dataset summary
  • us/states/sc/sc_h4216_reform_analysis.ipynb - H.4216 reform analysis
  • us/states/sc/sc_h4216_tax_impact_analysis.csv - PE analysis results
  • us/states/sc/rfa_h4216_analysis.csv - RFA official analysis
  • us/states/sc/h4216_analysis_comparison.md - Comparison analysis

Test plan

  • Data exploration notebook runs successfully
  • H.4216 reform analysis notebook runs with correct 5.39% top rate
  • All weighted statistics calculated correctly

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

DTrim99 and others added 4 commits February 26, 2026 15:00
Adds data exploration notebook and summary CSV for South Carolina (SC) dataset:
- Household and person counts (weighted)
- AGI distribution (median, average, percentiles) at household and person level
- Households with children breakdown
- Children by age group demographics
- Income bracket analysis

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add H.4216 reform analysis notebook using PolicyEngine microsimulation
- Include RFA official analysis data for comparison
- Add detailed comparison markdown explaining $159M difference:
  - PE shows +$40M revenue vs RFA's -$119M
  - Key difference: SCIAD phase-out treatment for upper-middle income
  - Implementation uses AGI - SCIAD vs federal taxable income

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Key findings:
- PE has 7.85x more $0 income returns vs RFA
- PE has ~50% fewer returns in $100k-$300k brackets
- PE has 1.9x more millionaire returns paying 78% higher avg tax
- Total baseline revenue similar ($6.52B vs $6.40B) but composition differs
- PE derives 48% of SC income tax from millionaires vs RFA's 15%

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
PE includes non-filers which explains 540k extra returns in $0 bracket

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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