Fix and add retirement contribution calibration targets#554
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PavelMakarchuk wants to merge 4 commits intomainfrom
Open
Fix and add retirement contribution calibration targets#554PavelMakarchuk wants to merge 4 commits intomainfrom
PavelMakarchuk wants to merge 4 commits intomainfrom
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- Correct traditional_ira_contributions: $25B → $13.2B (SOI 1304 Table 1.4 actual deduction, not total contributions) - Add traditional_401k_contributions: $567.9B (BEA/FRED employee DC contributions) - Add self_employed_pension_contribution_ald: $29.5B (SOI 1304 Table 1.4 Keogh plan deduction) - Remove roth_ira_contributions: structurally $0 due to CPS allocation bug (#553) - Update both loss.py and etl_national_targets.py Closes #553 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace sequential waterfall with proportional allocation based on administrative data. The old waterfall gave 401(k) first priority, consuming all of RETCB_VAL and leaving IRA contributions at $0 for every record. The Roth IRA allocation was also mathematically guaranteed to produce $0. The new approach splits RETCB_VAL proportionally: - DC vs IRA: 90.8% / 9.2% (BEA/FRED vs IRS SOI) - Within DC: 85% traditional / 15% Roth (Vanguard/PSCA) - Within IRA: 39.2% traditional / 60.8% Roth (IRS SOI Tables 5 & 6) All fractions are stored in imputation_parameters.yaml with sources. Contribution limits are still enforced. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Split 401(k) target: $567.9B total employee DC deferrals (BEA/FRED) into traditional $482.7B (85%) and Roth $85.2B (15%) using Vanguard How America Saves 2024 dollar share estimate - Add roth_ira_contributions target: $35.0B from IRS SOI Accumulation Tables 5 & 6 (TY 2022) — direct administrative source - Update etl_national_targets.py in parallel Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Fixes CI failure caused by DE TANF deficit_rate parameter missing history before 2024-10-01. The fix was merged in policyengine-us PR #7170 but uv.lock was pinned at 1.570.7. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Looks good, just please update this one bullet point in the PR body (if this is indeed correct):
Says:
- Remove roth_ira_contributions target ($39B) — structurally $0 due to CPS allocation bug where traditional IRA always exhausts the IRA limit first
But:
code actually keeps roth_ira_contributions and updates it from $39B to $35.0B in both loss.py and etl_national_targets.py (which it can do be
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Summary
traditional_ira_contributionstarget from $25B to $13.2B — the prior value included non-deductible contributions, but since policyengine-us uses the raw value directly as the ALD (no deductibility logic), the target must match the actual deduction claimed on returnstraditional_401k_contributionstarget: $567.9B — employee elective deferrals from BEA/FRED National Income Accountsself_employed_pension_contribution_aldtarget: $29.5B — Keogh plan deductions from SOI 1304roth_ira_contributionstarget ($39B) — structurally $0 due to CPS allocation bug where traditional IRA always exhausts the IRA limit firstUpdates both
loss.py(HARD_CODED_TOTALS) andetl_national_targets.py.Benchmark Sources
traditional_ira_contributionstraditional_401k_contributionsself_employed_pension_contribution_aldModel gap before this change
traditional_ira_contributionstraditional_401k_contributionsself_employed_pension_contribution_aldroth_ira_contributionsTest plan
Closes #553
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